Our industry specialist has reviewed and approved the final article. Also, some of the data presented here have been integrated into the Mesa real estate spreadsheet template.
Thinking of buying in Mesa? Get our financial spreadsheet tailored to this specific market.
1) Mesa boasts an impressive livability score of 81, highlighting its excellent quality of life
Signal strength: strong
The fact that the livability score in Mesa is 81 is a strong indicator that buying property here could be a wise investment.
This score is considered excellent because Mesa offers an abundance of recreational activities, such as hiking in the nearby Superstition Mountains and enjoying the numerous parks and golf courses. Additionally, Mesa is known for its strong sense of community, with various local events and festivals that bring residents together, fostering a welcoming environment. Furthermore, the city boasts a robust educational system, with several highly-rated schools and educational programs that attract families looking for quality education for their children.
These characteristics contribute to the high livability score, making Mesa an attractive place for potential homeowners and investors alike. When a city has a high livability score, it often translates to a stable or increasing demand for housing, which can lead to property value appreciation over time.
However, if the livability score were to drop below 70, it might suggest underlying issues that could affect property values negatively.
Source: AreaVibes
2) By 2026, major data center projects in Mesa, Arizona, like those by "Meta" and Novva, are expected to significantly increase real estate values
Signal strength: moderate
Several major data center projects in Mesa, Arizona, are set to significantly boost real estate values by 2026, making buying property there a potentially wise investment.
The Meta Data Center, a $1 billion project, is expected to be completed in 2026. Spanning over 2.5 million square feet, this advanced facility will enhance the local economy and increase property values. Its development by Meta and construction by DPR Construction highlight its significance, as it will be one of the most energy-efficient data centers globally, supported by 100% renewable energy and aiming for LEED Gold certification.
Another project, the Edged Energy Data Center, is set to complete in late 2025 near the Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport. This $70 million project will feature a 210,000-square-foot campus supporting high-density artificial intelligence and digital data processing. Developed by Edged Energy and constructed by Haydon, it will contribute to Mesa’s growing data center footprint, potentially increasing local property values.
The Novva Data Centers Campus, with a completion date for its first phase in late 2026, is another significant development. Located in Southeast Mesa, this project involves an investment of over $3 billion to build a 300MW data center campus on 160 acres. It will feature sustainable technologies like water-free cooling and solar energy, employing an estimated 200 people and contributing to the local economy and property values.
Sources: Construction Dive, AZ Big Media, AZ Tech Council, Novva, Construction Dive
Thinking of buying in Mesa?
We have a real estate spreadsheet fully tailored to this market. Get it now.
3) Mesa, Arizona, is expected to see an increase in its population
Signal strength: moderate
The population growth in Mesa, Arizona, is a key indicator of potential investment opportunities in the real estate market.
Analyzing the historical population trends, Mesa has experienced a significant increase, with the population growing by 109,303 from 2000 to 2023. This growth, despite a slight decline after 2019, suggests a consistent demand for housing over the years. The average annual growth rate of 1.18% further supports the idea that Mesa is an attractive location for new residents.
Looking ahead, forecasts indicate that Mesa's population will continue to rise, reaching 541,913 by 2030. This projected growth implies a sustained demand for residential properties, making it a promising area for real estate investment. As more people move to Mesa, the need for housing, infrastructure, and services will likely increase, potentially driving up property values.
Additionally, broader demographic insights from state and county projections, as well as estimates from the Maricopa Association of Governments, provide a comprehensive view of the region's growth potential. These insights can help investors make informed decisions by understanding the long-term trends and opportunities in the Mesa real estate market.
Sources: Neilsberg, Aterio, Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, SelectMesa.com, Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG)
4) Airbnb's "cash-on-cash return" of 4.0% in Mesa is fairly appealing
Signal strength: moderate
The cash-on-cash return on Airbnb in Mesa is 4.0%, which indicates a moderate level of profitability for short-term rental investments. This percentage suggests that investors can expect a reasonable return on their initial cash investment, making it an attractive option for those looking to enter the real estate market in this area.
Mesa attracts a variety of short-term tenants, including tourists visiting for its warm climate and outdoor activities, as well as business travelers attending conferences and events. Additionally, families and individuals visiting nearby attractions such as the Grand Canyon and other natural landmarks often choose to stay in Mesa for its convenient location and affordable accommodations.
These diverse groups of visitors create a steady demand for short-term rentals, which can help maintain occupancy rates and rental income. The consistent flow of tourists and business travelers ensures that property owners have a reliable source of potential tenants throughout the year.
If the cash-on-cash return were to drop below 2.0%, it might indicate a less favorable investment opportunity, as the potential returns would not justify the risks and costs associated with property ownership in Mesa.
Source: Mashvisor
How much cash flow can you generate in Mesa?
Get a clear view of your next investment, with all the metrics explained and reviewed accurately.
5) The "cash-on-cash return" of 4.0% in Mesa is fairly appealing
Signal strength: moderate
The cash-on-cash return of 4.0% in Mesa indicates that the property is generating a reasonable return on the cash invested. This percentage is a sign that the investment is not only covering its costs but also providing a moderate profit margin for the investor.
In Mesa, long-term tenants often include families and retirees who are attracted to the area's warm climate and affordable living. These tenants typically seek stability and are likely to stay for extended periods, ensuring a consistent rental income for property owners.
Additionally, Mesa's proximity to Phoenix and its growing job market makes it appealing to young professionals. This demographic is known for seeking rental properties that offer convenience and accessibility to employment opportunities.
If the cash-on-cash return were to drop below 2.0%, it might suggest that the investment is less attractive, potentially indicating higher risks or lower profitability.
Source: Mashvisor
So, is it worth buying property in Mesa? Absolutely!
Mesa, Arizona, offers a compelling case for real estate investment, thanks to its impressive livability score of 81. This high score reflects the city's excellent quality of life, abundant recreational activities, and strong community spirit.
Moreover, major data center projects by companies like Meta and Novva are set to significantly boost real estate values by 2026. These developments, totaling billions in investment, promise to boost the local economy and increase property demand.
Additionally, Mesa's population is on the rise, with projections indicating continued growth. This trend suggests a sustained demand for housing, making it a promising area for real estate investment. The city's 4.0% cash-on-cash return for Airbnb properties further highlights its potential for profitability.