Our industry specialist has reviewed and approved the final article. Also, some of the data presented here have been integrated into the Lexington real estate spreadsheet template.
Thinking of buying in Lexington? Get our financial spreadsheet tailored to this specific market.
Expecting a dip in Lexington property prices in 2025? Think again.
Despite economic shifts, Lexington's real estate market is poised for growth, driven by increasing demand and limited housing availability.
Let's explore why property prices in this vibrant city are set to rise in 2025.
We rely on solid, up-to-date data and statistics from multiple credible sources, ensuring our analysis is grounded in fact, not speculation.
By thoroughly examining this information, we draw our own conclusions, which we share at the end of this blog post. Enjoy the read!
How this content was produced 🔎📝
This article offers thoughtful insights and analysis based on reliable sources, but it should not be considered financial advice. We work hard to research, compile, and analyze data to give you a well-informed perspective. However, as you can guess, our analysis involves subjective choices, such as source selection and methods, and it cannot fully capture the market's complexity. Please, always do your own research, consult professionals, and make decisions based on your own judgment. Any financial risks or losses are your responsibility. Additionally, you should know that we have no affiliation with the sources mentioned, ensuring our analysis is completely impartial.
1) Lexington boasts an impressive livability score of 87, highlighting its excellent quality of life
Signal strength: strong
The fact that the livability score in Lexington is 87 is a strong indicator that housing prices are likely to rise in 2025.
Firstly, Lexington is known for its excellent educational institutions, which attract families and professionals seeking quality education for their children. Secondly, the city boasts a vibrant cultural scene, with numerous events, theaters, and galleries that enhance the quality of life for its residents.
Additionally, Lexington offers ample green spaces and parks, providing residents with opportunities for outdoor activities and relaxation, which are highly valued in urban living. These factors contribute to the city's high livability score, making it an attractive place to live and invest in real estate.
However, if the livability score were to drop below 75 due to significant changes in these key characteristics, it might signal a potential decline in housing demand.
Source: AreaVibes
2) In Lexington, there are only about 0.43 homes for each person, which is quite limited
Signal strength: strong
The fact that there is around 0.43 home per inhabitant in Lexington indicates a limited housing supply relative to the population. When the number of homes is low compared to the number of people, it often leads to increased competition for available properties, which can drive up prices.
In Lexington, a unique factor is the presence of several prestigious universities and colleges, which attract students, faculty, and staff from around the world. This influx of people creates a consistent demand for housing, further straining the already limited supply and contributing to rising housing prices.
Additionally, Lexington's charm and cultural offerings make it a desirable place to live, adding to the demand. With limited new construction due to zoning laws and preservation efforts, the supply of homes remains constrained, supporting the assumption that prices will continue to rise.
If the number of homes per inhabitant were to increase to around 0.6 or higher, it might indicate a more balanced market, potentially stabilizing or even reducing housing prices.
Source: USCensus
We created this infographic to show how property prices in Lexington compare to other big cities in Kentucky. It shows the median price as well as the price per sqft, making it easy to see which places might offer the best value. We hope you find it helpful.
3) Home values in Lexington have risen by 7.5% since last year, and this trend could persist
Signal strength: strong
The fact that home values in Lexington have already changed by 7.5% since last year is a strong indicator that the housing market is on an upward trend. This increase suggests that demand is likely outpacing supply, which often leads to rising prices.
Currently, the median home price in Lexington is around $301,468, which provides a baseline for understanding the market's growth potential. Additionally, the median sales price per square foot is around $187, offering further insight into the cost of property in the area.
These figures suggest that the market is healthy and could continue to grow, making it an attractive option for investment. If the trend of increasing home values continues, it could mean significant returns for those investing now.
However, if the home value change were to drop below 2%, it might indicate a cooling market, which could alter the current positive outlook.
Source: Redfin
4) Three major websites confidently predict that home prices in Lexington will rise in 2025
Signal strength: strong
There are three major websites forecasting a positive growth for home prices in Lexington in 2025, which is a promising signal for potential investors.
Among these forecasts, Redfin is the most optimistic with a projected increase of 4% in home prices, followed by Realtor at 3.70%, and Zillow at 3.10%. While these predictions are encouraging, it's important to note that there is no significant gap between them, indicating a general consensus among these platforms.
However, it's crucial to remember that forecasts should be taken with caution as they are based on predictive models and assumptions. We should consider these forecasts as part of a broader analysis and later incorporate strong, reliable, and actual data to make a well-informed investment decision.
If these forecasts were to predict a negative growth or a decline in home prices, it would suggest a different outlook for the Lexington housing market.
Sources: ZillowForecasts, RedfinForecasts, RealtorForecasts
Our team designed this infographic to show how competitive the real estate market in Lexington is vs. other major cities in Kentucky. It shows the percentage of sales above the list price, a key indicator of market competition.
5) Lexington's "vacancy rate" of 7.0% shows a bustling and competitive market with most spaces filled
Signal strength: moderate
The vacancy rate in Lexington is currently at 7.0%, which is considered very low. This low vacancy rate indicates that the housing market is highly occupied and competitive, suggesting that demand for housing is strong.
When demand is high and supply is limited, it often leads to increased housing prices as more people compete for fewer available homes. In such markets, properties that are easily rented are typically well-maintained and located in desirable areas.
Specifically, in Lexington, modern apartments in downtown areas are highly sought after due to their proximity to amenities and employment opportunities. Investors should consider these factors when evaluating potential real estate investments.
If the vacancy rate were to rise significantly, say to above 10%, it might indicate a shift towards a less competitive market, potentially affecting housing prices differently.
Sources: NeighborhoodScout, DataUSA, USCensus
6) Lexington's median home price remains 31% lower than the national average
Signal strength: minimal
The fact that Lexington still has a median home price 31% below the national average suggests that there is room for growth in the housing market. This gap indicates that Lexington's real estate market is potentially undervalued compared to other regions, making it an attractive option for investors.
In Lexington, the most expensive properties are likely to be luxury homes in areas like Chevy Chase, where demand is high due to the neighborhood's amenities and prestige. On the other hand, the cheapest properties might be small, older homes in neighborhoods like Cardinal Valley, where prices are lower due to less demand and fewer amenities.
As the market adjusts, these lower-priced areas could see increased interest from buyers and investors looking for affordable options, driving prices up. This potential for growth makes investing in Lexington's real estate market a promising opportunity.
If the median home price in Lexington were to rise above the national average, it might indicate that the market has reached its peak, and the potential for further price increases could be limited.
Source: Zillow
This infographic we have made will show you how market values have changed during the last decade in Lexington vs other major places in Kentucky. Here, the percentage increase or decrease in market value will help you see long-term trends.
7) A local in Lexington can typically afford a house in about 3.6 years, which is reasonable
Signal strength: minimal
In Lexington, it currently takes about 3.6 years for a local to afford a house, which is considered reasonable. This suggests that the housing market is relatively accessible, but it also indicates that housing demand might increase as more people find it affordable to buy homes.
With a median household income of around $83,263, residents have a decent earning capacity. This income level, combined with the median home price of approximately $301,468, means that many locals can realistically consider purchasing a home.
As more people are able to buy homes, the demand for housing is likely to rise, which could drive up prices. Investors might see this as a sign that housing prices could increase in 2025 due to growing demand.
If the time it takes to afford a home were to increase to over 5 years, it might suggest that housing prices are becoming too high for locals, potentially slowing down demand.
Source: USCensus
8) In Lexington, about 24% of homes sell for more than their listing price
Signal strength: minimal
In Lexington, around 24% of sales close at a price higher than the listing price, which is a strong indicator of demand. When buyers are willing to pay more than the asking price, it often means that competition among buyers is intense.
This competition can drive prices up, as sellers realize they can get more for their properties. As a result, the overall market trend tends to push prices higher over time.
For someone considering investing in real estate, this is a positive sign that property values may continue to appreciate in the future. However, if the percentage of sales closing above the listing price were to drop significantly, say to below 10%, it might suggest a cooling market.
Source: Zillow
This infographic designed by our team breaks down the latest livability score in Lexington but also in other big cities in Kentucky. It provides a clear view of which locations offer the best overall living conditions, which is a good thing to know if you want to buy real estate.
9) In the past decade, Lexington's home prices have consistently risen by an average of 7.4% each year
Signal strength: minimal
The fact that home prices in Lexington have appreciated at an average rate of 7.4% over the last decade is a strong indicator of a healthy real estate market. This consistent growth suggests that there has been a steady demand for housing in the area, which often leads to price increases.
When we see such a positive 10-year average home value appreciation, it typically points to a market where conditions have been favorable for growth. This historical trend can be a useful signal for potential investors, as it implies that the market has been resilient and may continue to perform well.
However, it's important to remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. While the historical data is promising, investors should also consider other factors that could influence future prices, such as economic changes or shifts in demand.
If the average appreciation rate were to drop significantly, say below 2% over a similar period, it might suggest a weakening market and could signal a potential decline in future housing prices.
Source: NeighborhoodScout
So, are prices going to climb in Lexington in 2025? Yes, they are!
Lexington's housing market is poised for a price increase in 2025, driven by several compelling factors.
Firstly, the city's impressive livability score of 87 highlights its excellent quality of life, attracting families and professionals. With only 0.43 homes per person, the limited housing supply relative to demand is a key driver of rising prices. Additionally, home values have already risen by 7.5% since last year, indicating a strong upward trend.
Moreover, forecasts from major websites predict a positive growth of up to 4% in home prices, reinforcing the expectation of price increases. The low vacancy rate of 7.0% further underscores the competitive market, while the median home price remains 31% lower than the national average, suggesting room for growth. With these factors combined, it's clear that Lexington's housing market is set for a price climb in 2025.
Related analyses:
- Yes, investing in real estate is a solid option in 2025 in Lexington