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In 2025, Dallas homeowners and buyers might see a shift in the housing market, with signs pointing to a possible drop in prices.
Using 11 key data points, we’ll explore why this change could be on the horizon—from rising interest rates to shifts in demand. Let’s dive into what could be driving a potential price decline for Dallas homes.
This article gives you valuable insights, but remember, it’s not and will never be investment advice. We pull data from a range of sources to provide you with the most accurate picture possible, yet we can’t guarantee complete accuracy. Markets are difficult to predict. Make sure to do your own research and consult a professional before making any financial moves. Any risks or losses are your own responsibility.
1) Somes areas in Dallas have already lost more than 2.5%
Some areas in Dallas are already feeling the pinch, with housing prices dropping more than 2.5% over the past year, and this trend could hint at further price declines in 2025.
For example, in Dallas County, home prices dropped by 3.8% from June 2023 to June 2024, bringing the median price down to $370,000, while neighboring Collin County saw a 4.6% decline, with median prices now at $515,000.
San Antonio also saw declines at different times of the year: prices fell 2.7% from August 2023 to August 2024, with the median price reaching $268,000, and a larger 4.6% drop occurred from March 2023 to March 2024, where prices went from $334,100 to $305,800.
All of this suggests that if these trends continue, we might see even more price reductions in 2025.
Sources: The Dallas Morning News, Yahoo Finance, Sell My House Fast
We created this infographic to show how property prices in Dallas compare to other big cities in Texas. It shows the median price as well as the price per sqft, making it easy to see which places might offer the best value. We hope you find it helpful.
2) If rates drop in 2025, a lot of homeowners might finally decide to sell, causing a wave of new listings
A solid reason we might see home prices drop further in Dallas is that 70% of homeowners there have a mortgage rate of 4% or less.
This has led to what's called "rate lock-in"—basically, these owners don’t want to sell because they’d have to give up their low mortgage rate, and that’s keeping the number of homes for sale really low.
But if interest rates come down as expected in 2025, many of these homeowners could decide it’s finally worth selling, leading to a sudden surge of homes on the market.
This wave of new listings could mean more options for buyers, which would give them more room to negotiate and push prices down.
3) There are, actually, more homes available in the Dallas real estate market
The number of homes available for sale in Dallas has risen significantly.
For instance, in October 2024, there were 5,741 homes for sale, a 13.5% increase from the previous month. In September 2024, active listings in the Dallas-Fort Worth area increased by 50% compared to the previous year. Housing supply has reached a 12-year high, with active listings remaining well above last year's levels.
When the supply of homes exceeds buyer demand, sellers often reduce prices to attract buyers, leading to potential price declines.
Sources: Rocket Homes, Home Buying Institute
4) Homes in Dallas are taking longer to sell
Homes in Dallas are indeed spending more time on the market before being sold.
In September 2024, a typical home stayed on the market for an average of 44 days, compared to just 33 days during the same period last year.
This extended selling period suggests that buyers may be feeling less pressure to make quick offers, which can, in turn, encourage sellers to consider price reductions to attract interest.
This trend reflects a cooling in the Dallas housing market, where both buyers and sellers may need to adjust expectations in response to shifting market dynamics.
Sources: Rocket Homes, Redfin
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5) In general, everywhere, home prices in Dallas have shown signs of stabilizing
Dallas home prices are starting to stabilize after several years of rapid increases.
In September 2024, the median sale price was $413,000, which reflects a modest 1.6% decrease compared to the same month last year.
This shift hints that the high growth rates of recent years are slowing down, and we may even start to see more price reductions as the housing market begins to balance supply and demand more evenly. This stabilization could make the market more accessible to buyers, while sellers might face a slightly longer wait to secure optimal offers.
Sources: Redfin, MyMetroTex
- Why Dallas' real estate market is cooling off in 2025
6) A significant number of sellers are reducing their asking prices in Dallas
Many sellers in Dallas are dropping their asking prices.
In fact, recent data shows that around 40% of homes listed in the area have seen price reductions.
This shift suggests that sellers are noticing less demand or realizing that their original prices may have been a bit too high. These price adjustments could bring overall market prices down, making it a bit easier for buyers to find homes within their budget as the market begins to cool off.
Source: Home Buying Institute
7) If we look at ratios, homes in Dallas are actually selling for about 2.9% below the listed price
The sale-to-list price ratio in Dallas currently stands at 97.1%, which means homes are selling for about 2.9% below the listed price. This suggests that buyers have more negotiating power in the current market.
In a competitive, high-demand market, homes often sell at or above the list price, but a sale-to-list ratio below 100% indicates that sellers may need to adjust their expectations and be open to price negotiations.
This shift in buyer power is another sign of a cooling market, supporting the possibility of continued price softening into 2025.
Source: Why Move To Dallas
- Why Dallas' real estate market is not overvalued in 2025
Our team designed this infographic to show how competitive the real estate market in Dallas is vs. other major cities in Texas. It shows the percentage of sales above the list price, a key indicator of market competition.
8) Experts predict slight declines / stabilization of Dallas housing prices by 2025
Zillow forecasts suggest flat growth (0.0%) for Dallas-Fort Worth through August 2025.
Over the past year, Dallas has already seen a -2.3% decrease in median home prices, suggesting possible affordability concerns among buyers or rising interest rates impacting demand.
Homes are also selling about 3% below list price, showing sellers may be adjusting to meet the current buyer demand.
Together, these trends—forecasted declines, current price drops and below-list sales—indicate that Dallas housing prices may face downward pressure as the market cools, leading to potential price drops in 2025. Prices are getting cheaper, maybe now is the right time for you to buy a property in Dallas?
Sources: Norada Real Estate, Yahoo Finance, Red Fin, Home Buying Institute
- Why investing in Dallas residential real estate in 2025 is a good idea
9) The Dallas area is experiencing a big boost in new home construction
In the first quarter of 2024, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington region led the country with 45,815 new housing starts on an annualized basis—a whopping 50% increase from the year before, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve.
With more homes entering the market, buyers have a wider selection, which can lead to price reductions as sellers work harder to stand out and attract buyers. This increase in supply might mean more options and possibly better deals for those looking to buy in Dallas.
Source: Dallas Federal Reserve
10) Sales volume in Dallas has taken a big hit, with 11.6% fewer homes sold
Sales volume has declined significantly, with closed transactions down 11.6% compared to last year.
This kind of drop shows that fewer buyers are jumping into the market, likely because higher interest rates are making homes less affordable, or buyers are holding off with market uncertainty in the air.
When demand dips like this, sellers often have to get more flexible on prices to attract interest, which only adds to the signs that prices could keep softening as we move into 2025.
Source: My Metro Tex
11) Due to rising costs, 35% of people in Dallas are considering relocating
Recent surveys indicate that a significant portion of Dallas residents are considering relocating to more affordable areas, which could influence the local housing market.
Indeed, a 2024 survey by the Dallas Regional Chamber found that 35% of respondents are contemplating moving due to the high cost of living, with housing expenses being a primary concern.
This potential out-migration may lead to decreased demand for housing in Dallas, potentially exerting downward pressure on home prices.
Sources: Dallas Chamber of Commerce, New York Post
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So, will Dallas housing prices fall in 2025? Maybe, but not dramatically!
Dallas has seen a lot of growth in recent years, especially in its more affordable neighborhoods. Prices have gone up significantly, with some areas seeing prices quadruple. This has made affordable housing a hot commodity.
However, the market is showing signs of stabilizing. As of September 2024, the median home price in Dallas was $413,000, which is actually a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. This suggests that prices are leveling off rather than continuing to rise uncontrollably.
Additionally, there's been a 50% increase in housing inventory compared to last year, which means more homes are available for sale. This increase in supply can help ease competition and pressure on prices, making it less likely for prices to skyrocket.
While there might be modest declines, like a projected -0.3% by mid-2025, these aren't expected to be dramatic. The market is aligning with genuine demand and supply, not driven by speculative or inflated growth. So, while prices might dip slightly, a major fall seems unlikely.