Our industry specialist has reviewed and approved the final article. Also, some of the data presented here have been integrated into the Bakersfield real estate spreadsheet template.
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Thinking of buying in Bakersfield? Get our financial spreadsheet tailored to this specific market.
Expecting a dip in Bakersfield property prices in 2025? Think again.
Despite economic fluctuations, the Bakersfield real estate market is poised for growth, driven by increasing demand and limited housing supply.
In this blog post, we will explore the reasons why property prices in Bakersfield are set to rise in 2025.
We rely on solid, up-to-date data and statistics from multiple credible sources, ensuring our analysis is grounded in fact, not speculation.
By the end of this post, we will present our own conclusions based on a comprehensive analysis of the data. Enjoy the read!
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How this content was produced 🔎📝
This article offers thoughtful insights and analysis based on reliable sources, but it should not be considered financial advice. We work hard to research, compile, and analyze data to give you a well-informed perspective. However, as you can guess, our analysis involves subjective choices, such as source selection and methods, and it cannot fully capture the market's complexity. Please, always do your own research, consult professionals, and make decisions based on your own judgment. Any financial risks or losses are your responsibility. Additionally, you should know that we have no affiliation with the sources mentioned, ensuring our analysis is completely impartial.
1) In Bakersfield, there are only about 0.33 homes for each person, which is quite limited
Signal strength: strong
The fact that there is around 0.33 home per inhabitant in Bakersfield suggests a limited housing supply relative to the population.
When housing supply is limited, it often leads to increased competition among buyers, which can drive up prices. In Bakersfield, a unique local factor is the recent growth in the agricultural industry, attracting more workers and their families to the area.
This influx of people increases demand for housing, further straining the already limited supply. As a result, the imbalance between supply and demand is likely to push housing prices higher in the coming years.
If the ratio of homes to inhabitants were to increase to around 0.5 home per inhabitant, it might indicate a more balanced market, potentially stabilizing prices.
Source: USCensus
2) Redfin considers the Bakersfield real estate market to be "very competitive."
Signal strength: strong
The fact that Redfin ranks the Bakersfield real estate market as "very competitive" is a strong indicator that housing prices are likely to rise in 2025.
In Bakersfield, the most competitive properties are single-family homes, particularly in the Southwest area of the city. This area is highly sought after because it offers a suburban feel with access to good schools and amenities, making it attractive to families.
When a market is labeled as "very competitive," it often means that there are more buyers than available homes, which can drive prices up. The demand for single-family homes in this area is a key factor contributing to this competitiveness.
If the market were to become "less competitive," with more homes available than buyers, it could signal a potential stabilization or decrease in housing prices.
Source: Redfin
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We created this infographic to show how property prices in Bakersfield compare to other big cities in California. It shows the median price as well as the price per sqft, making it easy to see which places might offer the best value. We hope you find it helpful.
3) Homes in Bakersfield have already increased in value by 7.0% since last year, and this trend could persist
Signal strength: strong
The fact that home values in Bakersfield have already changed by 7.0% since last year is a strong indicator that the housing market is on an upward trend. This increase suggests that demand is growing, which often leads to higher prices.
Currently, the median home price in Bakersfield is around $388,009, and the median sales price per square foot is about $234. These figures show that the market is already experiencing significant value, which could attract more buyers and investors.
As more people become interested in purchasing homes, the competition can drive prices even higher. If this trend continues, it's reasonable to expect that housing prices will keep rising in the coming years, including 2025.
However, if the market were to see a significant decrease in demand, this signal might not hold, and prices could stabilize or even drop.
Source: Redfin
4) Three major websites predict that home prices in Bakersfield will rise in 2025
Signal strength: strong
There are three major websites forecasting a positive growth for home prices in Bakersfield in 2025, which is a promising signal for potential investors.
Among these forecasts, Realtor is the most optimistic with a prediction of a 6.00% increase in home prices, followed by Redfin at 4%, and Zillow at 1.80%. The significant gap between these forecasts suggests varying levels of confidence in the market's growth potential.
While these predictions are encouraging, it's important to approach them with caution as they are based on projections and not guaranteed outcomes. We will also rely on strong, reliable, and current data to make a well-informed investment decision.
If these forecasts were to predict a negative growth or a decline in home prices, it would signal a potential downturn in the market.
Sources: ZillowForecasts, RedfinForecasts, RealtorForecasts
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Our team designed this infographic to show how competitive the real estate market in Bakersfield is vs. other major cities in California. It shows the percentage of sales above the list price, a key indicator of market competition.
5) Bakersfield's "vacancy rate" of 5.0% shows a bustling and competitive market with most spaces filled
Signal strength: moderate
The vacancy rate in Bakersfield is currently at 5.0%, which is considered very low. This low vacancy rate suggests that there is a high demand for housing in the area, as most properties are occupied.
When demand is high and supply is limited, it often leads to increased competition among potential renters, which can drive up rental prices. As rental prices rise, it becomes more attractive for investors to purchase properties, anticipating that property values will also increase over time.
In Bakersfield, properties that are easily rented are typically well-maintained single-family homes located in desirable neighborhoods such as Seven Oaks. These areas are popular due to their proximity to good schools and amenities, making them appealing to families and professionals.
If the vacancy rate were to rise above 10%, it might indicate an oversupply of housing, which could potentially lead to a decrease in property values.
Sources: NeighborhoodScout, DataUSA, USCensus
6) In Bakersfield, nearly 40% of homes sell for more than their listing price
Signal strength: moderate
In Bakersfield, around 40% of sales close at a price higher than the listing price, which is a strong indicator of demand. When buyers are willing to pay more than the asking price, it suggests that competition among buyers is intense.
This competition often leads to increased housing prices as buyers try to outbid each other. If this trend continues, it is likely that home values will rise in the future.
For potential investors, this is a signal that investing in Bakersfield real estate could be profitable. However, if the percentage of sales closing above the listing price were to drop significantly, say to below 20%, it might indicate a cooling market.
Source: Zillow
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This infographic we have made will show you how market values have changed during the last decade in Bakersfield vs other major places in California. Here, the percentage increase or decrease in market value will help you see long-term trends.
7) In the past decade, home prices in Bakersfield have consistently risen by an average of 7.6% each year
Signal strength: minimal
The fact that home prices in Bakersfield have appreciated at an average rate of 7.6% over the last decade is a noteworthy signal for potential investors. This consistent growth suggests a history of demand and price growth, which can indicate favorable conditions for future increases.
While a positive 10-year average appreciation rate is encouraging, it's important to remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. However, it remains a good indicator to consider when evaluating the potential for future price increases.
Investors should be aware that other factors, such as economic conditions and market trends, also play a significant role in determining future prices. Keeping an eye on these elements can help in making informed decisions.
If the appreciation rate were to drop significantly, say below 3% over a similar period, it might suggest a different trend and warrant a more cautious approach.
Source: NeighborhoodScout
So, are prices going to climb in Bakersfield in 2025? Yes, they are!
In Bakersfield, the housing market is poised for a price increase in 2025 due to several compelling factors.
Firstly, the limited housing supply of about 0.33 homes per person creates a competitive environment, especially with the growing agricultural industry attracting more residents. This imbalance between supply and demand is a classic recipe for rising prices.
Moreover, Redfin's classification of the market as "very competitive" and the fact that 40% of homes sell above their listing price further underscore the high demand. The 7.0% increase in home values over the past year and a low vacancy rate of 5.0% also indicate a bustling market.
Finally, forecasts from major websites like Realtor, Redfin, and Zillow predict a positive growth in home prices, with Realtor being the most optimistic at a 6.00% increase. All these factors combined suggest that Bakersfield's housing prices are set to climb in 2025.
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- Yes, investing in real estate is a solid option in 2025 in Bakersfield