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Expecting a dip in Arlington property prices in 2025? Think again.
Despite economic shifts, Arlington's real estate market is poised for growth, driven by high demand and limited housing availability.
In this blog post, we will explore why property prices in Arlington are set to rise in 2025.
We rely on solid, up-to-date data and statistics from multiple credible sources, ensuring our analysis is grounded in fact, not speculation.
By the end of this post, we will have thoroughly examined the data and provided our own well-informed conclusions. Enjoy the read!
How this content was produced 🔎📝
This article offers thoughtful insights and analysis based on reliable sources, but it should not be considered financial advice. We work hard to research, compile, and analyze data to give you a well-informed perspective. However, as you can guess, our analysis involves subjective choices, such as source selection and methods, and it cannot fully capture the market's complexity. Please, always do your own research, consult professionals, and make decisions based on your own judgment. Any financial risks or losses are your responsibility. Additionally, you should know that we have no affiliation with the sources mentioned, ensuring our analysis is completely impartial.
1) In Arlington, there are only about 0.38 homes for each person, which is quite limited
Signal strength: strong
The fact that there is around 0.38 home per inhabitant in Arlington indicates a limited housing supply relative to the population. This low ratio suggests that housing demand is likely to exceed supply, which often leads to rising prices.
Arlington is known for its proximity to Washington, D.C., making it a desirable location for professionals working in the capital. This demand is compounded by Arlington's reputation for excellent schools and amenities, attracting families and individuals alike.
With such a limited number of homes available per person, competition for housing is likely to be fierce, driving prices upward. Investors should consider that the scarcity of homes is a key factor in predicting future price increases.
If the ratio were to increase significantly, say to 0.5 home per inhabitant or more, it might indicate a more balanced market, potentially stabilizing prices.
Source: USCensus
2) Three major websites confidently predict that home prices in Arlington will rise in 2025
Signal strength: strong
There are three major websites forecasting a positive growth for home prices in Arlington in 2025, which is a promising signal for potential investors.
Among these forecasts, Realtor is the most optimistic with a projected increase of 9.20%, followed by Redfin's forecast of 4%, and finally, Zillow predicts a 2.60% rise in home prices. This range of predictions shows a significant gap in expectations, highlighting the varying levels of confidence among these platforms.
While these forecasts are encouraging, it's important to approach them with caution as they are based on predictive models that may not account for unforeseen factors. We will also rely on strong, reliable, and actual data to make a more informed and professional judgment about the market.
If these forecasts were to predict a negative growth or stagnation in home prices, it would suggest a different outlook for the Arlington housing market.
Sources: ZillowForecasts, RedfinForecasts, RealtorForecasts
We created this infographic to show how property prices in Arlington compare to other big cities in Texas. It shows the median price as well as the price per sqft, making it easy to see which places might offer the best value. We hope you find it helpful.
3) Arlington's "vacancy rate" of 7.0% shows it's a bustling and competitive market
Signal strength: moderate
The vacancy rate in Arlington is currently at 7.0%, which is considered very low. This low vacancy rate indicates that the market is highly occupied and competitive, suggesting that demand for housing is strong.
When demand is high and supply is limited, housing prices tend to increase as more people compete for fewer available properties. In Arlington, properties that are easily rented are often modern apartments in good condition, particularly in areas like Clarendon and Ballston, which are known for their amenities and proximity to public transport.
Investors should consider that such properties are likely to see price appreciation due to their desirability and the overall market conditions. However, if the vacancy rate were to rise significantly, say above 10%, it could indicate a shift towards a less competitive market.
Sources: NeighborhoodScout, DataUSA, USCensus
4) Arlington's "Livability" score of 78 indicates a good quality of life
Signal strength: moderate
The livability score of 78 in Arlington is considered good because it reflects a high quality of life.
One reason for this score is the excellent public school system, which attracts families looking for quality education. Additionally, Arlington boasts numerous parks and recreational areas, providing residents with ample opportunities for outdoor activities and relaxation. These factors contribute to a desirable living environment, making Arlington an attractive place to live.
Another key aspect is the strong local economy, with a variety of job opportunities in sectors like technology and government. This economic stability often leads to increased demand for housing, as people move to the area for work. As demand rises, it is likely that housing prices will follow suit, making it a potentially lucrative market for real estate investment.
However, if the livability score were to drop significantly, it could indicate a decline in these positive attributes, potentially leading to a decrease in housing demand and prices.
Source: AreaVibes
Our team designed this infographic to show how competitive the real estate market in Arlington is vs. other major cities in Texas. It shows the percentage of sales above the list price, a key indicator of market competition.
5) In Arlington, home prices have consistently risen by an average of 9.0% each year over the past decade
Signal strength: moderate
The fact that home prices in Arlington have appreciated at an average rate of 9.0% over the last decade is a noteworthy signal for potential investors. This historical trend suggests that there has been a consistent demand and growth in home values in the area, which can be a positive indicator for future price increases.
While a positive 10-year average home value appreciation indicates a history of demand and price growth, it is important to remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. However, such a trend can still be a valuable piece of information when considering investment opportunities.
Investors should consider this data as part of a broader analysis, as it suggests favorable conditions for future increases in housing prices. It is crucial to look at other factors as well, but historical appreciation rates can provide a useful context for making informed decisions.
If the appreciation rate were to drop significantly, say to below 3% over a similar period, it might suggest a different trend and warrant a more cautious approach.
Source: NeighborhoodScout
6) Arlington's median home price remains 28% lower than the national average
Signal strength: minimal
The fact that Arlington's median home price is 28% below the national average suggests that there is room for growth in the housing market. When a market is priced lower than the national average, it often attracts investors and homebuyers looking for affordable options, which can drive up demand and prices.
In Arlington, the most expensive properties are likely to be luxury single-family homes in upscale neighborhoods such as Lyon Village. These areas are desirable due to their proximity to amenities and high-quality schools, making them attractive to affluent buyers.
On the other hand, the cheapest properties are probably small condos or older homes in less developed areas like Nauck. These properties may offer investment opportunities for those looking to renovate and increase value over time.
If Arlington's median home price were to rise above the national average by a significant margin, it might indicate a market saturation, potentially slowing down further price increases.
Source: Zillow
This infographic we have made will show you how market values have changed during the last decade in Arlington vs other major places in Texas. Here, the percentage increase or decrease in market value will help you see long-term trends.
7) Arlington boasts a strong employment rate of 68.8%, indicating robust job availability
Signal strength: minimal
The employment rate in Arlington is at 68.8%, which is considered high compared to the national average in the United States.
This high employment rate suggests that more people have stable incomes, which can lead to increased demand for housing. When people have jobs, they are more likely to buy homes, and this demand can drive up housing prices.
In Arlington, the major employment sectors include government, technology, and education, which are known for providing stable and well-paying jobs. Companies like Amazon and Boeing employ a significant number of people in the area, contributing to the high employment rate.
If the employment rate were to drop below 60%, it might indicate a weakening job market, which could lead to a decrease in housing demand and potentially lower housing prices.
8) In Arlington, about a quarter of homes sell for more than their listing price
Signal strength: minimal
In Arlington, around 25% of sales close at a price higher than the listing price, which is a strong indicator of demand. When buyers are willing to pay more than the asking price, it often means that competition among buyers is fierce and they are eager to secure a property.
This kind of market behavior suggests that housing demand is outpacing supply, which typically leads to an increase in prices. If more people are interested in buying than there are homes available, prices are likely to rise as buyers try to outbid each other.
For someone considering investing in real estate, this trend can be a signal that property values might appreciate in the near future. However, if the percentage of sales closing above the listing price were to drop significantly, say to below 10%, it might indicate a cooling market.
Source: Zillow
This infographic designed by our team breaks down the latest livability score in Arlington but also in other big cities in Texas. It provides a clear view of which locations offer the best overall living conditions, which is a good thing to know if you want to buy real estate.
So, are prices going to climb in Arlington in 2025? Absolutely
In Arlington, the housing market is poised for a price increase in 2025, and here's why.
First, the limited housing supply with only 0.38 homes per person means demand is likely to exceed supply, driving prices up. Arlington's appeal, due to its proximity to Washington, D.C., excellent schools, and amenities, further fuels this demand. The 7.0% vacancy rate indicates a bustling market, where competition is fierce, and properties are highly sought after.
Moreover, three major websites predict a rise in home prices, with Realtor forecasting a 9.20% increase. Historical data supports this trend, as home prices have consistently risen by an average of 9.0% annually over the past decade. Additionally, Arlington's livability score of 78 and a strong employment rate of 68.8% contribute to a high quality of life and stable job market, attracting more buyers.
Finally, with 25% of homes selling above their listing price, it's clear that demand is outpacing supply. All these factors combined suggest that Arlington's housing market is set for a price increase in 2025, making it a promising opportunity for investors and homebuyers alike.
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